|
WINTHROP/ETV POLL RESULTS
Suppose the election were being held today. If Barack Obama
were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were
the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more
likely to vote for - Barack Obama, the Democrat (or) John
McCain, the Republican? [names rotated]
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
Christians
(white only) |
Evangelicals
(white only) |
|
McCain |
51.3% |
56.6% |
49.1% |
60.1% |
64.7% |
71.5% |
|
Obama |
35.1% |
31% |
36.8% |
25.5% |
22% |
17% |
|
Someone Else
[volunteered] |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.6% |
5.8% |
2.7% |
3.4% |
|
Undecided
[volunteered] |
8.3% |
6.3% |
9.2% |
6.3% |
8.7% |
6.5% |
|
Refused |
2.6% |
3.2% |
2.3% |
2.2% |
1.9% |
1.6% |
Did you ever seriously consider not voting in the general
election if your favored candidate in the primaries didn’t
get the nomination?
|
|
All |
Clinton Supporters |
|
Yes |
12.4% |
18.6% |
|
No |
84.7% |
79.8% |
|
Don't Know/Refused |
2.9% |
1.6% |
How important is a candidate’s pick for vice president in
deciding which presidential candidate you will vote for – is
it very important, somewhat important, not very important,
or not at all important?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
Very Important |
37.5% |
38% |
37.1% |
48.3% |
|
Somewhat Important |
33.4% |
32.9% |
33.6% |
28.5% |
|
Not Very Important |
13.2% |
14.7% |
12.6% |
10.2% |
|
Not At All Important |
14.1% |
12.8% |
14.7% |
11.1% |
|
Don't Know/Refused |
1.8% |
1.6% |
2% |
1.9% |
Would choosing a vice presidential candidate from the South
make you more likely or less likely to vote for a
presidential candidate, or would it make no difference?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
Native Southerners |
|
More Likely |
7.1% |
8% |
6.7% |
10.5% |
8% |
|
Less Likely |
2.5% |
2.6% |
2.5% |
1.8% |
2.5% |
|
Makes No Difference |
87.2% |
85.9% |
87.8% |
84.9% |
87.4% |
|
Not Sure |
2.5% |
3.2% |
2.1% |
2.8% |
1.7% |
|
Refused |
0.7% |
0.3% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
.4% |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is
handling his job as president?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
Approve |
35.2% |
38.5% |
33.9% |
37.8% |
|
Disapprove |
52.5% |
48.7% |
54.1% |
53.1% |
|
Don't Know/Refused |
12.3% |
12.7% |
12.0% |
9.1% |
Thinking about the current path that our nation is taking,
do you think our country is on the right track or headed in
the wrong direction?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
Right Track |
24.5% |
27% |
23.5% |
20.9% |
|
Wrong Direction |
62.5% |
60% |
63.5% |
68.2% |
|
Don't Know/Refused |
13.0% |
13% |
13.0% |
10.9% |
Which of the following comes closest to your preference
regarding U.S. policy on the environment: [answers
rotated]
The
U.S. government should be more active in protecting
the environment.
The
U.S. government should continue its current
environmental policies.
The
U.S. government should less involved in environmental
issues
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
U.S Gov't More Active |
57.2% |
54.7% |
58.2% |
58.3% |
|
U.S. Gov't Continue Current |
21.2% |
22.3% |
20.8% |
21.4% |
|
U.S. Gov't Less Involved |
17.3% |
17.8% |
17.1% |
16.8% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
3.9% |
4.9% |
3.5% |
3% |
|
Refused
[volunteered] |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Which of the following qualities is most important to you in
selecting the candidate for whom you will vote? [answers
rotated]
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
Christians
(white only) |
Evangelicals
(white only) |
|
Experience |
21.1% |
26.3% |
19% |
20.8% |
23.4% |
21.3% |
|
Knowledge/Intelligence |
18.2% |
16.0% |
19% |
13.1% |
15.8% |
11.7% |
|
Honesty |
25.7% |
21.2% |
27.5% |
32.4% |
24.4% |
25.8% |
|
Diplomatic Skills |
3.7% |
1.9% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
2.8% |
2.6% |
|
Holds Positions Similar to Yours |
5.8% |
6.4% |
5.6% |
2.8% |
5.2% |
5.1% |
|
Exhibits Values Similar to Yours |
19.8% |
19.9% |
19.8% |
20.3% |
23.1% |
28.9% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
4.8% |
6.7% |
3.9% |
4.6% |
4.3% |
4.2% |
|
Refused |
1.0% |
1.6% |
0.8% |
1.4% |
1.1% |
0.5% |
What is the one issue that is most important to you
in the upcoming presidential election? [NOTE: Question
open-ended; responses were categorized by trained
interviewers]
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
Economy 35.7% |
Economy 34.8% |
Economy 35.9% |
Economy 32.4% |
|
Iraq 12.0% |
Iraq 10.4% |
Iraq 12.5% |
Iraq 15.3% |
|
Price of Gas 5.8% |
Healthcare 7.3% |
Price of Gas 6.0% |
Price of Gas 6.2% |
|
Healthcare 5.3% |
Terrorism 6.6% |
Healthcare 4.4% |
Healthcare 5.6% |
I’m going to read a list of issues, for each issue, I’d like
for you to tell me –if you had to choose—whether you think
John McCain or Barack Obama would do a better job on that
issue.
The
first issue is healthcare. Who do you think would do better
on that issue?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
41.6% |
47.5% |
39.2% |
48.3% |
|
Obama |
40.8% |
36.9% |
42.4% |
34.9% |
|
Neither/Do the Same
[volunteered] |
8.1% |
6.7% |
8.6% |
7.7% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
9.1% |
8.3% |
9.4% |
8.7% |
|
Refused |
0.5% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
How about energy, including gas prices?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
47.3% |
51% |
45.9% |
50.1% |
|
Obama |
33.6% |
30.6% |
34.7% |
27.5% |
|
Neither/Do the Same
[volunteered] |
10.7% |
8.9% |
11.3% |
9.0% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
7.8% |
8.6% |
7.6% |
11.7% |
|
Refused |
0.6% |
1% |
0.5% |
1.8% |
How about the situation in Iraq?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
53.7% |
56.8% |
52.5% |
59.5% |
|
Obama |
33.5% |
30.5% |
34.6% |
25.1% |
|
Neither/Do the Same
[volunteered] |
6.4% |
4.4% |
7.2% |
6.5% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
6.0% |
7.3% |
5.6% |
8.0% |
|
Refused |
0.3% |
1.0% |
0.1% |
0.8% |
How about taxes?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
50% |
54.8% |
48% |
51% |
|
Obama |
30.3% |
30.3% |
30.2% |
23.4% |
|
Neither/Do the Same
[volunteered] |
10.1% |
5.4% |
12% |
10.7% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
9.2% |
8.3% |
9.6% |
14.1% |
|
Refused |
0.4% |
1.3% |
0.1% |
0.8% |
How about illegal immigration?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
42.1% |
44.4% |
41.2% |
42.4% |
|
Obama |
25.5% |
25.7% |
25.4% |
18.1% |
|
Neither/Do the Same
[volunteered] |
14% |
14% |
14% |
16.6% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
17.3% |
14.3% |
18.6% |
21.3% |
|
Refused |
1% |
1.6% |
0.8% |
1.6% |
How about moral values?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
45.1% |
49.2% |
43.4% |
55.7% |
|
Obama |
28.2% |
26.7% |
28.8% |
21.8% |
|
Neither/Do the Same
[volunteered] |
17.5% |
13% |
19.3% |
14.2% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
8.5% |
10.2% |
7.8% |
7.8% |
|
Refused |
0.7% |
1% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
How about terrorism?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
57.9% |
61.6% |
56.3% |
62.6% |
|
Obama |
25.2% |
23.8% |
25.7% |
18.5% |
|
Neither/Do the Same
[volunteered] |
9% |
5.4% |
10.4% |
8.7% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
7.6% |
8.3% |
7.4% |
9.3% |
|
Refused |
0.3% |
1.0% |
0.1% |
0.8% |
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities,
please say whether you think each one applies more
to Barack Obama or more to John McCain?
The
first is “Understands the problems Americans face in their
daily lives.”
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
39.1% |
44.9% |
36.8% |
47% |
|
Obama |
41.1% |
36% |
43.2% |
33.1% |
|
Applies to Both Equally
[volunteered] |
8.2% |
8.3% |
8.1% |
9.2% |
|
Applies to Neither
[volunteered] |
7.9% |
7.3% |
8.1% |
7.5% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
3.5% |
2.9% |
3.8% |
2.8% |
|
Refused
[volunteered] |
0.2% |
0.6% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
How about “Is independent in his thoughts and actions.”
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
41.1% |
47.8% |
38.4% |
47.9% |
|
Obama |
38.1% |
33.4% |
40% |
31.1% |
|
Applies to Both Equally
[volunteered] |
7.2% |
5.4% |
7.8% |
3.8% |
|
Applies to Neither
[volunteered] |
7.3% |
6.1% |
7.8% |
8.1% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
5.8% |
6.4% |
5.6% |
8.2% |
|
Refused
[volunteered] |
0.4% |
1.0% |
0.3% |
0.8% |
Would work well with both parties to get things done in
Washington.
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
45.8% |
49% |
44.4% |
53.7% |
|
Obama |
32.9% |
30.9% |
33.7% |
27.6% |
|
Applies to Both Equally
[volunteered] |
8.8% |
6.7% |
9.7% |
6.4% |
|
Applies to Neither
[volunteered] |
7.0% |
8.3% |
6.6% |
3.9% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
4.9% |
3.8% |
5.2% |
7.6% |
|
Refused
[volunteered] |
0.6% |
1.3% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
Cares about the needs of people like you.
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
37% |
43% |
34.5% |
43.2% |
|
Obama |
37.9% |
34.4% |
39.3% |
33.3% |
|
Applies to Both Equally
[volunteered] |
8.5% |
8% |
8.8% |
5.3% |
|
Applies to Neither
[volunteered] |
11.6% |
8.9% |
12.7% |
13.0% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
5.0% |
|
Refused
[volunteered] |
0.6% |
1.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Is a strong leader.
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
50.1% |
53% |
48.8% |
56.3% |
|
Obama |
30.3% |
27.8% |
31.4% |
24.9% |
|
Applies to Both Equally
[volunteered] |
8.7% |
6.7% |
9.6% |
5.4% |
|
Applies to Neither
[volunteered] |
5.6% |
6.4% |
5.4% |
7.1% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
4.5% |
4.8% |
4.5% |
5.9% |
|
Refused
[volunteered] |
0.7% |
1.3% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
Would stand up to special interests, including those aligned
with his party.
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
40.8% |
44.1% |
39.4% |
48% |
|
Obama |
33.7% |
31.9% |
34.5% |
26.7% |
|
Applies to Both Equally
[volunteered] |
6.4% |
4.8% |
7.1% |
3.6% |
|
Applies to Neither
[volunteered] |
10.9% |
9.6% |
11.4% |
8.2% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
7.3% |
8.0% |
7% |
11.5% |
|
Refused
[volunteered] |
0.9% |
1.6% |
0.7% |
2.0% |
Shares your values.
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
45.1% |
50% |
43.2% |
51.1% |
|
Obama |
32.9% |
29.2% |
34.4% |
23.8% |
|
Applies to Both Equally
[volunteered] |
7.5% |
6.1% |
8% |
6.4% |
|
Applies to Neither
[volunteered] |
8.7% |
8.7% |
8.7% |
8.8% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
5.2% |
4.5% |
5.5% |
9.6% |
|
Refused
[volunteered] |
0.6% |
1.6% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
Has a clear plan for solving the country’s problems.
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
29.8% |
34.1% |
28.1% |
39.3% |
|
Obama |
26.2% |
24.1% |
26.9% |
20.1% |
|
Applies to Both Equally
[volunteered] |
4.5% |
4.2% |
4.6% |
3.7% |
|
Applies to Neither
[volunteered] |
33.3% |
29.6% |
34.8% |
27.9% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
5.6% |
5.8% |
5.5% |
7.9% |
|
Refused
[volunteered] |
0.6% |
2.3% |
0.0% |
1.1% |
Is honest and trustworthy.
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
McCain |
40.7% |
44.1% |
39.2% |
49.8% |
|
Obama |
27.9% |
25.4% |
28.9% |
19.6% |
|
Applies to Both Equally
[volunteered] |
16.9% |
13.5% |
18.4% |
13.1% |
|
Applies to Neither
[volunteered] |
9.3% |
8.4% |
9.7% |
9.8% |
|
Not Sure
[volunteered] |
4.5% |
6.8% |
3.5% |
7.4% |
|
Refused
[volunteered] |
0.7% |
1.9% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
How important is it that a president has served in the
United States military – is it very important, somewhat
important, not very important, or not at all important?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
Very Important |
27.3% |
32.7% |
25.1% |
37.8% |
|
Somewhat Important |
28.8% |
26% |
29.9% |
24.3% |
|
Not Very Important |
14.4% |
12.8% |
15% |
12.7% |
|
Not At All Important |
28.3% |
26% |
29.2% |
23.4% |
|
Don't Know/Refused |
1.3% |
2.6% |
0.8% |
1.9% |
How concerned are you that, as president, John McCain would
pursue policies that are too similar to what George W. Bush
has pursued – very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too
concerned, or not concerned at all.
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
Very Concerned |
34.6% |
32.1% |
35.5% |
30.9% |
|
Somewhat Concerned |
16.8% |
15.4% |
17.4% |
20.8% |
|
Not Too Concerned |
15% |
17% |
14.2% |
16.6% |
|
Not At All Concerned |
30.9% |
33.7% |
29.7% |
29% |
|
Don't Know/Refused |
2.8% |
1.9% |
3.2% |
2.7% |
I’d like to ask you what you think about Barack Obama’s
level of experience. Do you think he has enough
experience to be president, does not have enough
experience to be president, or are not sure whether he has
enough experience to be president?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
Has Enough Experience |
31.3% |
27.3% |
32.9% |
21.2% |
|
Does Not Have Enough Experience |
49.4% |
53.4% |
47.8% |
57.8% |
|
Not Sure |
18.3% |
18.3% |
18.3% |
20.5% |
|
Refused |
1% |
1% |
1.1% |
0.5% |
I’d like for you to think about your circle of closest
friends. Do you think the majority of them would have a
serious problem voting for an African American for
president, somewhat of a problem voting for an
African American for president, or no problem at all
voting for an African American for president?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
Serious Problem |
5.8% |
6.5% |
5.5% |
9% |
|
Somewhat of a Problem |
16.5% |
16.8% |
16.4% |
23% |
|
No Problem At All |
73.2% |
72.9% |
73.3% |
63% |
|
Not Sure |
3.9% |
3.9% |
3.8% |
3.9% |
|
Refused |
0.6% |
0.0% |
0.9% |
1% |
In your choice for president, how important is the race of
the candidate - very important, somewhat important, not so
important or not important at all?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Whites |
Blacks |
Working Class Whites |
|
Very Important |
6.4% |
8.7% |
5.5% |
4.6% |
18.8% |
9.1% |
|
Somewhat Important |
5.8% |
6.8% |
5.5% |
5.3% |
8.3% |
8.3% |
|
Not Very Important |
13.5% |
14.8% |
12.9% |
14.7% |
12% |
15.7% |
|
Not At All Important |
73.3% |
68.4% |
75.1% |
74.3% |
60.9% |
65.1% |
|
Don't Know/Refused |
1.1% |
1.3% |
1.1% |
1.1% |
0.0% |
1.8% |
In your choice for president, how important is the age of
the candidate - very important, somewhat important, not so
important or not important at all?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
|
Very Important |
12.9% |
14.2% |
12.4% |
16.9% |
|
Somewhat Important |
34.6% |
32.6% |
35.6% |
30% |
|
Not Very Important |
16.1% |
16.8% |
15.8% |
14.8% |
|
Not At All Important |
35.3% |
35.5% |
35.2% |
36.8% |
|
Don't Know/Refused |
1.1% |
1% |
1.1% |
1.4% |
At what age would you say someone is “too old” to run for
president?
|
Not Sure |
14.9% |
|
No Age Too Old |
21.2% |
|
Mean |
73.73 years old |
|
Median |
74 years old |
|
Mode |
70 years old |
Even if the candidate were a practicing Christian, would
having a Muslim parent impact your willingness to vote for a
candidate for president?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Working Class Whites |
Christians
(white only) |
Evangelicals
(white only) |
|
Yes |
24.8% |
27.7% |
23.5% |
37.7% |
30% |
40.3% |
|
No |
65% |
59.7% |
67.2% |
49.9% |
59.7% |
49% |
|
Not Sure |
8.7% |
9% |
8.7% |
11% |
9.3% |
9.8% |
|
Refused |
1.5% |
3.5% |
0.7% |
1.4% |
1% |
0.9% |
How important would you say religion is in your own life:
Very important, fairly important, or not very important?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Whites |
Blacks |
Working Class Whites |
|
Very Important |
70.8% |
82.4% |
66.1% |
69% |
83.6% |
78% |
|
Fairly Important |
18.6% |
12.7% |
21% |
20.4% |
11.9% |
14% |
|
Not Very Important |
9.2% |
3.6% |
11.5% |
9.7% |
2.2% |
7.4% |
|
Refused |
1.5% |
1.3% |
1.5% |
1% |
2.2% |
0.5% |
Would you describe yourself as a “born again” or evangelical
Christian?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Whites |
Blacks |
Working Class Whites |
|
Yes |
49.8% |
59.5% |
45.7% |
48.9% |
66.2% |
65.8% |
|
No |
45.2% |
35.5% |
49.2% |
47.2% |
27.1% |
29.3% |
|
Not Sure |
2.7% |
3.3% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
4.5% |
3.8% |
|
Refused |
2.3% |
1.6% |
2.6% |
1.5% |
2.3% |
1.1% |
How would you describe your political beliefs, Very Liberal,
Somewhat Liberal, Moderate, Somewhat Conservative, Very
Conservative?
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Whites |
Blacks |
Working Class Whites |
|
Very Liberal |
7.4% |
8.3% |
7% |
6.3% |
11.4% |
6.4% |
|
Somewhat Liberal |
15.2% |
12.5% |
16.2% |
13.0% |
27.3% |
15.6% |
|
Moderate |
24.6% |
22.8% |
25.3% |
24.7% |
27.3% |
28.7% |
|
Somewhat Conservative |
26.4% |
26.4% |
26.3% |
28.5% |
15.2% |
19.4% |
|
Very Conservative |
23.4% |
28.1% |
21.6% |
24.7% |
16.7% |
26.3% |
|
Not Sure |
2.3% |
0.7% |
3.1% |
2.3% |
1.5% |
3.2% |
|
Refused |
0.8% |
1.3% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.8% |
0.3% |
Which of the following best describes your regional
identity? [answers rotated]
-
Non-Southern
-
Converted Southerner
-
Native Southerner
|
|
All |
Deep South |
Peripheral South |
Whites |
Blacks |
Working Class Whites |
|
Non-Southern |
14.6% |
9.1% |
16.8% |
14.3% |
13.6% |
5.4% |
|
Converted Southerner |
20% |
13.7% |
22.6% |
22% |
6.8% |
19.9% |
|
Native Southerner |
61.5% |
74.6% |
56% |
60.8% |
75% |
71.9% |
|
Not Sure |
3% |
1.6% |
3.5% |
2.2% |
4.5% |
2.3% |
|
Refused |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.1% |
0.7% |
0.0% |
0.5% |
Some people seem to follow what's going on in government and
public affairs most of the time, whether there's an election
or not. Others aren't that interested. How often would you
say that you follow what is going on in government and
public affairs: Most of the time, Some of the time, Only now
and then, or Hardly at all?
|
Most of the Time |
73.4% |
|
Some of the Time |
18.5% |
|
Only Now and Then |
4.5% |
|
Hardly At All |
2.7% |
|
Don't Know/Refused |
0.1% |
What is your primary source for news about politics?
Is it local or regional television news, cable television
news, newspapers, radio, the Internet, talking with friends
or family, or something else?
|
Local/Regional TV News |
19.5% |
|
Cable TV News |
44.7% |
|
Newspapers |
16.9% |
|
Radio |
5.2% |
|
Internet |
9.2% |
|
Friends or Family |
1.6% |
|
Something Else |
1.0% |
|
Don't Know/Refused |
1.7% |
For more information, contact Catherine Christman at (803)
240-5863 or
christman@scetv.org.
|
